[Faculty] Fwd: [CSRC.COLLOQUIUM] "On the making of Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessments (PTHA) "

[Jose Castillo]

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DATE:
*Friday, October 22, 2021*


TITLE:
*On the making of Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessments (PTHA)*


TIME:
*3:30-4:30PM*



LOCATION:
*In Person - GMCS 314*
or
Join Zoom Meeting -   https://SDSU.zoom.us/j/86808277973
<https://sdsu.zoom.us/j/86808277973>


SPEAKER/BIO:
*Ignacio Sepulveda, Civil, Construction and Environmental Engineering, San
Diego State University   *


ABSTRACT:

In the last 15 years, Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessments/Analyses
(PTHA) have gained recognition as a powerful approach to quantify the risk
of life and property loss in coastal areas due to tsunamis. While the PTHA
method is straightforward, various sources of uncertainty need to be
investigated before we attempt a standardization for Coastal Engineering
studies. The uncertainty sources include our imperfect knowledge of the
mechanism and occurrence of tsunamigenic sources, the seafloor geometry and
the interaction of tsunamis with other physical processes, such as tides
and the climate-change-driven sea level rise.

In this talk, I present my new studies which aim to combine Civil
Engineering, Stochastic modeling and Geophysics. First, we explore the
impact of bathymetry uncertainties in tsunami propagation models. Due to
the partial coverage of shipboard bathymetric soundings, errors in water
depth estimates may lead to significant errors in tsunami simulations. The
tsunami errors are investigated and interesting results are found. Second,
we present a new study addressing the impact of tides and
climate-change-driven sea level rise in PTHA studies. For this, we
developed a new mathematical model based on a non-stationary Poisson
process to determine hazard probabilities within an exposure time (e.g. 100
years). Relevant questions about the impact of tides and sea level rise on
tsunamis can now be answered.


Host:
*Jose Castillo*

Note: Videos of previous colloquium talks can be seen on the CSRC website
in the colloquium archive section or on the CSRC YouTube page here
<https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCN0ZEztlmyDqG2pm-Rle_Eg/feed>.





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