<div dir="ltr"><br clear="all"><div><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_signature" data-smartmail="gmail_signature"><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><br></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="gmail_quote"><br><div dir="ltr"><div><div><div style="overflow:auto"><div style="max-height:10000px"><div dir="ltr"><p style="text-align:center;clear:both"><img src="cid:2af3cf68-4229-4315-a612-dd0b3adf7d66" alt="SDSU_CSRC Logo.jpg" style="margin-left:1em;margin-right:1em"><br><br></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="margin-top:1em;margin-bottom:1em;line-height:normal;color:rgba(0,0,0,0.87);font-family:Roboto,RobotoDraft,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;text-align:center"><span style="color:black"><font face="verdana, sans-serif"><br>DATE:</font></span><font face="verdana, sans-serif"><span style="font-size:10pt;color:black"> </span><span style="font-size:13.5pt;color:black"> <br></span><b><font size="4">Friday, November 6, 2020</font></b></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="margin-top:1em;margin-bottom:1em;line-height:normal;color:rgba(0,0,0,0.87);font-family:Roboto,RobotoDraft,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;text-align:center"><b><span style="font-size:18pt"><font face="verdana, sans-serif"><br></font></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="margin-top:1em;margin-bottom:1em;line-height:normal;color:rgba(0,0,0,0.87);font-family:Roboto,RobotoDraft,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;text-align:center"><font face="verdana, sans-serif"><span style="font-size:10pt;color:black"></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="margin-top:1em;margin-bottom:1em;line-height:normal;color:rgba(0,0,0,0.87);font-family:Roboto,RobotoDraft,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;text-align:center"><span style="color:black"><font face="verdana, sans-serif"><br></font></span></p><div dir="ltr" style="color:rgba(0,0,0,0.87)"><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="margin-top:1em;margin-bottom:1em;line-height:normal;font-size:14px;font-family:Roboto,RobotoDraft,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center"><font face="verdana, sans-serif"><span style="font-size:10pt;color:black"></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="margin-top:1em;margin-bottom:1em;line-height:normal;font-size:14px;font-family:Roboto,RobotoDraft,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center"><font face="verdana, sans-serif"><span style="color:black"></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="margin-top:1em;margin-bottom:1em;line-height:normal;font-size:14px;font-family:Roboto,RobotoDraft,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center"><font face="verdana, sans-serif"><span style="color:black">TITLE:</span><span style="font-size:10pt;color:black"><br></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="margin-top:1em;margin-bottom:1em;line-height:normal;font-size:14px;font-family:Roboto,RobotoDraft,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center"><font face="verdana, sans-serif"><span style="font-size:10pt;color:black"></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="margin-top:1em;margin-bottom:1em;line-height:normal;font-size:14px;font-family:Roboto,RobotoDraft,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center"><font size="6" face="verdana, sans-serif"></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="margin-top:1em;margin-bottom:1em;line-height:normal;font-size:14px;font-family:Roboto,RobotoDraft,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center"><font size="6" face="verdana, sans-serif"><b><span style="background-image:none;background-position:0% 0%;background-repeat:repeat"></span></b></font></p><div style="text-align:center"><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="line-height:150%"><font face="verdana, sans-serif" size="4"><b>On the Dual Nature of Chaos and Order in Weather and
Climate: New Insights and Opportunities Within a Generalized Lorenz
Model</b></font><font face="verdana, sans-serif" size="4"><b> </b></font></p></div><div style="font-size:14px;font-family:Roboto,RobotoDraft,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center"><font face="verdana, sans-serif"><font size="6"><b><br></b></font><font size="6"><b></b></font></font><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top:1em;margin-bottom:1em;line-height:normal"><b><font face="verdana, sans-serif"><span style="font-size:11pt;color:black"></span></font></b></p><font face="verdana, sans-serif"><font size="6"><b></b></font><font size="6"><b><span style="font-size:12pt"></span></b></font><font size="6"><b></b></font><font size="6"><b><span style="font-size:11pt"></span></b></font></font></div><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="margin-top:1em;margin-bottom:1em;line-height:normal;font-size:14px;font-family:Roboto,RobotoDraft,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center"><font face="verdana, sans-serif"><span style="color:black"></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="margin-top:1em;margin-bottom:1em;line-height:normal;font-size:14px;font-family:Roboto,RobotoDraft,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center"><font face="verdana, sans-serif"><span style="color:black"></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="margin-top:1em;margin-bottom:1em;line-height:normal;font-size:14px;font-family:Roboto,RobotoDraft,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center"><span style="color:black"><font face="verdana, sans-serif"><br></font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="margin-top:1em;margin-bottom:1em;line-height:normal;font-size:14px;font-family:Roboto,RobotoDraft,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center"><font face="verdana, sans-serif"><span style="color:black">TIME:</span><span style="font-size:10pt;color:black"> </span><span style="font-size:13.5pt;color:black"> <br></span><b><font size="4">3:30-4:30PM</font></b></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="margin-top:1em;margin-bottom:1em;line-height:normal;font-size:14px;font-family:Roboto,RobotoDraft,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center"><font face="verdana, sans-serif"><br><b><span style="font-size:18pt"><span style="color:black"></span></span></b></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="margin-top:1em;margin-bottom:1em;line-height:normal;font-size:14px;font-family:Roboto,RobotoDraft,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center"><span style="font-size:10pt;color:black"><font face="verdana, sans-serif"> </font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="margin-top:1em;margin-bottom:1em;line-height:normal;text-align:center"><font style="font-size:14px;font-family:Roboto,RobotoDraft,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif"><span style="color:black">LOCATION:<br></span><font size="4" style="font-weight:bold"><span style="color:black">Join Zoom Meeting - </span></font></font><a href="https://sdsu.zoom.us/j/91071174391" title="https://SDSU.zoom.us/j/91071174391" target="_blank"><font face="verdana, sans-serif" size="4"><b>https://SDSU.zoom.us/j/91071174391</b></font></a><font style="font-size:14px;font-family:Roboto,RobotoDraft,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif"><font size="4"><font color="#000000"><br></font></font><span style="font-weight:bold"><font size="4"><br></font></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="margin-top:1em;margin-bottom:1em;line-height:normal;font-size:14px;font-family:Roboto,RobotoDraft,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center"><span style="font-size:10pt;color:black"><font face="verdana, sans-serif"> </font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="margin-top:1em;margin-bottom:1em;line-height:normal;font-size:14px;font-family:Roboto,RobotoDraft,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center"><font face="verdana, sans-serif"><span style="color:black"></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="margin-top:1em;margin-bottom:1em;line-height:normal;font-size:14px;font-family:Roboto,RobotoDraft,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center"><font face="verdana, sans-serif"><span style="color:black">SPEAKER/BIO:</span><span style="font-size:13.5pt;color:black"> </span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="margin-top:1em;margin-bottom:1em;line-height:normal;text-align:center"><font face="verdana, sans-serif" size="4"><b>Dr. Bo-Wen Shen, Mathematics and Statistics, San Diego State University </b></font> <font face="verdana, sans-serif"><br></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="margin-top:1em;margin-bottom:1em;line-height:normal;font-size:14px;font-family:Roboto,RobotoDraft,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center"><font size="4" face="verdana, sans-serif"><b><b><span style="font-size:18pt"><span style="color:black"></span></span></b></b></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="margin-top:1em;margin-bottom:1em;line-height:normal;font-size:14px;font-family:Roboto,RobotoDraft,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center"><b><font face="verdana, sans-serif"><span style="font-size:18pt"></span></font></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="margin-top:1em;margin-bottom:1em;line-height:normal;font-size:14px;font-family:Roboto,RobotoDraft,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center"><span style="color:black"><font face="verdana, sans-serif"> </font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top:1em;margin-bottom:1em;line-height:normal;font-size:14px;font-family:Roboto,RobotoDraft,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif"><font size="2" face="verdana, sans-serif"><span style="color:black"><br></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top:1em;margin-bottom:1em;line-height:normal;font-size:14px;font-family:Roboto,RobotoDraft,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif"><font size="2" face="verdana, sans-serif"><span style="color:black"><br></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top:1em;margin-bottom:1em;line-height:normal;font-size:14px;font-family:Roboto,RobotoDraft,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center"><span style="color:black"><font size="2" face="verdana, sans-serif">ABSTRACT:</font></span></p></div><div dir="ltr" style="color:rgba(0,0,0,0.87);font-family:Roboto,RobotoDraft,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px"><font face="verdana, sans-serif"><br></font></div><div><div></div></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top:6.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:6.0pt;margin-left:0in;text-align:justify;text-indent:.25in;line-height:150%;text-autospace:none"><span style="line-height:150%;color:black"><br><font face="verdana, sans-serif" size="4">Over 50 years since Lorenz’s 1963 study and a follow-up
presentation in 1972, the statement ``weather is chaotic’’ has been well
accepted. Such a view turns our attention from regularity associated with
Laplace’s view of determinism to irregularity associated with chaos. In
contrast to single type chaotic solutions, recent studies using a generalized
Lorenz model (GLM, Shen 2019a; Shen et al. 2019) have focused on the
coexistence of chaotic and regular solutions that appear within the same model
using the same modeling configurations but different initial conditions. The
results, with attractor coexistence, suggest that the entirety of weather
possesses a dual nature of chaos and order with distinct predictability (e.g., Shen
et al. 2020). The refined view on the dual nature of weather is neither too
optimistic nor pessimistic as compared to the Laplacian view of deterministic
predictability that is unlimited and the Lorenz view of deterministic chaos
with finite predictability. The refined view may unify our theoretical
understanding of different predictability within various types of solutions of
Lorenz models and recent numerical simulations of advanced global weather/climate
models that can simulate large-scale tropical systems (e.g., African easterly
waves and Madden-Julian Oscillations) beyond two weeks (e.g., Shen 2019b; Judt
2020).<br></font></span><font face="verdana, sans-serif" size="4" style="color:rgba(0,0,0,0.87)"><span style="color:black;text-indent:0.25in"><br>In this study, based on the GLM, we discuss the following two
mechanisms that may enable or modulate two kinds of attractor coexistence and,
thus, contribute to distinct predictability: (1) the aggregated negative
feedback of small-scale convective processes that can produce stable
non-trivial equilibrium points and, thus, enable the appearance of stable
steady-state solutions and their coexistence with chaotic or nonlinear
oscillatory solutions, referred to as the 1st and 2nd kinds of attractor
coexistence; and (2) the modulation of large-scale time varying forcing
(heating) that can determine (or modulate) the alternative appearance of two
kinds of attractor coexistence.</span><span style="color:black;text-indent:0.25in"> </span><span style="color:black;text-indent:0.25in">Based on
our results, we then discuss new opportunities and challenges in predictability
research with the aim of improving predictions at extended-range time scales,
as well as sub-seasonal to seasonal time scales.</span></font><font face="verdana, sans-serif" size="4" style="color:rgba(0,0,0,0.87)"><span style="color:rgb(34,34,34)"> </span><span style="color:rgb(34,34,34)"> </span></font><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"> </span><font face="verdana, sans-serif" size="4" style="color:rgba(0,0,0,0.87)"> </font></p><div dir="ltr" style="color:rgba(0,0,0,0.87)"><font face="verdana, sans-serif"><br></font></div><div dir="ltr" style="color:rgba(0,0,0,0.87);font-family:Roboto,RobotoDraft,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px"><font size="4" face="verdana, sans-serif"> <br></font></div><div dir="ltr" style="color:rgba(0,0,0,0.87);font-family:Roboto,RobotoDraft,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px"><font size="4" face="verdana, sans-serif"><br></font><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 5.2pt 0.0001pt 0in;line-height:13.91px"><font face="verdana, sans-serif"><br></font></p><font size="4" face="verdana, sans-serif"></font></div><font face="verdana, sans-serif" style="font-size:14px"><font size="4"><font color="#000000">Host:</font><font color="rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.870588235294118)"> </font><font color="#000000">Jose Castillo</font></font><br></font><div style="color:rgba(0,0,0,0.87);font-family:Roboto,RobotoDraft,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px"><font size="4" face="verdana, sans-serif"><br></font></div><div style="color:rgba(0,0,0,0.87);font-family:Roboto,RobotoDraft,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px"><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top:1em;margin-bottom:1em;line-height:normal"><font face="verdana, sans-serif" size="4"><span style="font-weight:bold">Note:</span><span style="font-weight:bold"> </span>Videos of previous colloquium talks<span style="text-align:center"> can be seen on the CSRC website in the colloquium archive section or on the </span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCN0ZEztlmyDqG2pm-Rle_Eg/feed" rel="nofollow" style="color:rgb(26,115,232);text-align:center" target="_blank">CSRC YouTube page here</a><span style="text-align:center">.</span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top:1em;margin-bottom:1em;line-height:normal"><font face="verdana, sans-serif" size="4"><span style="text-align:center"><br><br></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top:1em;margin-bottom:1em;line-height:normal"><font face="verdana, sans-serif" size="4"><span style="text-align:center"><br></span></font></p></div></div></div></div></div><div></div><div></div></div><div><div></div></div><div></div></div>
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